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When betting the horses, it is important not to become memorized with the long shot in every race. Value is out there, but the best value is not always the horse sporting ninety-nine to one odds. In order to find your best long shot in horseracing, you have to separate the contenders from the pretenders first.

Analyze and Organize the Data

Before betting any race, it is well served to analyze the data using a racing form of choice. I personally prefer to review the speed figures, however feel free to utilize whatever means of judging a horse you see fit. Next, I manually adjust the data to reflect current track conditions, equipment or jockey changes, as well as anything I have observed in the horse’s mannerisms. I make notes on a separate sheet of paper. All the while, I ignore the odds set by the racing form of choice, as I hope to achieve my own opinion, as opposed to taking the word of another.

Upon reviewing the stats of the horses, I use my information to compile a few lists for the race. The first list I make is my list of contenders to win the race. These are horses that I have deemed likely to win most of the races if this particular race was run 100 times. I try to limit this list to two or three horses, depending on the field size.

Next, I make a list of contenders. This list of contenders encompasses the horses I feel will make the money in most of the races. It is important to remember that these horses are sometimes capable of winning a race as well.

Finally, I make a list of “also rans.” This list contains the horses I suspect would rarely find their way to the money over the course of 100 races.

After I have compiled this list, I assign 5% to the “also rans,” 60% to the winners category, and 35% to the contenders category so that I can handicap each horse individually with those parameters in mind. Once I have assigned odds to each horse (which adds up to 100%), I am prepared to make my kentucky derby betting. When utilizing this method of handicapping, I typically identify a horse that is a long shot, but has value. I will bet this horse individually – especially if the track odds list this horse at 20-1 or longer. Additionally, I use a combination of winners and contenders in placing my exotic bets.

By analyzing and sorting through the race data, I stand a better chance of finding a value horse and am able to make decisions that are more informed on my horse betting.