Racing Home

Most people head to the racetrack, buy the Racing Form, and take the word of the paper for handicapping a race. The information used in the racing form is the statistics the majority of the betting public utilizes when selecting their winners. If everyone uses the same numbers and odds, it becomes increasingly difficult to find a value horse. While it is best practice to review the statistics of each horse in a race, it is imperative that one handicaps the race by hand in order to find true value in one’s betting selection.

Review the Stats

The first order of business for online horse race betting is to review the statistics of each horse in the race. I prefer to use the horse’s speed rating. I use four speed factors when analyzing a race. First, I utilize the speed rating consists of raw speed – which is a comparison between the finishing time and the distance ran in the race. Next, the speed rating is adjusted to consider the difference in speed between tracks. Additionally, the raw speed rating is adjusted in a third calculation to consider the variance of a horse’s speed based on the condition of the racetrack. Finally, the raw speed rating is adjusted to reflect post position of the horse.

When the four numbers are combined, they make a final speed rating. While many people bet horses based on final speed ratings, I prefer to review the individual components of the final speed rating.

Make Manual Adjustments

The next step, after reviewing my speed figures is to adjust based on conditions and distance of the actual race at hand. I use a plus/minus system giving horses bonus points if the track is sloppy and they have both ran and performed well on sloppy tracks. Additionally, I consider which horses are used to the distance ran. I also award bonus points for horses that typically run longer distances, but are moving down to a shorter race. This usually suggests a horse has sufficient power early on, but has issues closing the race.

Handicap by Hand

Finally, after reviewing the speed figures and manually adjusting the stats, I make my own line for the race. I use a base of 100%, though you will notice that when the race is handicapped in the Form, the number is greater than 100%. Once I have handicapped the race, I compare my line with the current line at the track. I identify value and bet accordingly.