Let’s just quickly run through the QB names and teams. It’s worth it for a good laugh. Jay Cutler on the Bears – OK not that unheard of, we know Chicago made a nice pickup during the off-season. What’s surprising is that there’s actually a person who’s name you know from the NFL and not from college currently occupying that #1 spot. Next we’ve got Daunte Culpepper – OK, nothing unusual – oh wait, he’s back? And he’s on the Lions? Actually, it’s sort of fitting. This will be such a miserable failure it’ll be par for the course for Detroit. Well if Culpepper isn’t the Vikings’ QB, it must be – oh yeah, Brett Favre. That’s right, assume it’s going to happen, because it probably is. And rounding out this laugh factory is Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, perhaps the most consistent and solid option in this division until Cutler proves he can make something out of the Bears’ receiving core. There’s no Donald Driver here in Chicago yet – and if the Bears don’t land one of those names that’s been going around – I have a feeling Jay’s going to get tired of Hester dropping the ball once every five plays by Week 3.

Here’s how you can expect the division to shake out. Bears will win it. Forget about Cutler’s yardage for a second (but expect him to hit at least 3,500 and throw at least 22 TD’s), just the threat of Cutler will continue to open things up for Forte, who should explode this season. The Packers will finish a game behind according to the latest NFL odds and challenge for the Wild Card. Not even Adrian Peterson will save the Vikings, who will end the year at 8-8. And Daunte will free his butt off losing in Detroit, although to give him some credit, they may win 2 games this year.

If you’re betting on NFC North Division games, don’t stray from that game plan. Expect the Bears to be favorites during every divisional home and away game, with the exception of the Packers possibly getting the money line when they’re in Green Bay. The Pack should be a favorite in every other game outside of Soldier Field.

Here’s a bare bones but thorough run through of some of the common rules or variations and what they do to the odds.

In a game where getting Black jack pays 2:1 instead of 1:1 or 6:5, etc…, the odds increase 2.27 percent in your favor – the largest fluctuation of any rule variation I’m going to go through. For all other rules changes, you’ll just see a number next to it in parenthesis.

If you are allowed to double on any number of cards, it gives you a slight advantage (+0.23). Dealer hitting on soft 17 (this is about 50/50 in American casinos from my experience) will hurt an equal amount (-0.22).

Black paying 7:5 is one to avoid if the rule is present at the table (-0.45), not to mention 6:5 payoff (-1.37). Of course, something that may alter the odds here are the number of decks in play. Oftentimes, the more decks, the better your black jack payoff odds are. And unless you’re card counting or shuffle tracking, I’d stick with the best black jack payoff odds you can find.

Now here’s where some rule variations absolutely kill you. These are more prevalent outside of the U.S., but nonetheless need to be mentioned and avoided. What I’m talking about is losing on a tie. A 17, 18 tie drops your odds 3.58%. A 17-19 tie rises to -5.3%. 17-20 puts you at a dismal -8.38 percent, and a 17-21 tie kills you at -8.85 percent. This alone should highlight the importance of knowing the blackjack rules before you sit down. If you don’t, you could be in for a rude awakening that’s almost sure to leave your wallet empty. These are games that tilt the odds far too heavy in favor of the casinos, and you as a play must be informed.

Oh yeah, one last one. If you see this rule in play, I recommend running out of the casino screaming in horror. Dealer busts on a 22 being a push. I can’t even type that one without laughing. That hurts your odds by almost 10%. That’s a huge number even if you’re only playing for a half an hour.

The detriments start and end with predictability. If any of the other players at the PokerStar table even get a hint that you’re only betting up major made hands, you’ll be easier to read than a highway billboard. This will only hurt you. You won’t get the big pots because players will know when to drop, and you won’t catch anything because you wouldn’t have stayed in long enough on a questionable hand to get it to that next level. And yes, sometimes you have to “limp” to see a potential powerhouse hand through to fruition or destruction. It’s just the nature of the game. If you can’t that, at least from time to time, you shouldn’t be playing for money.

To help define what we’re talking about, the rock only bets that “sure thing” early. We’re talking AA, KK, QQ or AK suited. The rock might play JJ or lower pairs, but only in a later betting position at the table, certainly not in the first couple spots. The rock does not set the betting tone. He responds to it, every time. Another major detriment. If you’re always a follower, you’re never going to have control, by definition. If you’re always waiting for someone else to make a move, you’re playing not to lose instead of going after the pot. Consistently sitting on the sidelines might be enough to get you a place, but not the top spot.

The benefit? Clearly you minimize your risk when you are playing on Golden Palace. But in tournament play, when the blinds increase every 10 hands or every 30 minutes, that risk increases a little bit each time whether you want it to or not.

It’s a weak strategy in my opinion, and really only has value if you’re third out of three at a table and are waiting to see if one big dog will knock out the other so you can slip into second place. Sorry, but no poker player should be happy with second place. And it’s not a reputation you want to have for yourself.

Coming up on 7-26 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is the Allstate Brickyard 400. There’s a good two weeks between this and the previous race, so teams will have a chance to rest, adjust and fix what needs to be fixed. For guys like Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, though, not a whole lot is broken. Right now it’s a psychological game between the top three in the standings.

Brickyard is a 160-lap race, and that favors Stewart. He’s also due for a third win of the season. If you’re a risky nascar betting gambler and want to go with one racer, he’s your man. It’s easy to pick the guy at the top and bet him, but Stewart presents a strong argument to go with him here. If you’re looking at a player on player money line, also, Stewart vs. the field (anyone else) is a safe bet to take. The further down the trough you slide, though, the less your return is going to be. I’d think, however, something like Stewart vs. Kyle Busch would net a decent return (maybe -145 on Stewart, +130 on Busch) if you targeted a high-profile matchup like that. Busch is a threat, but not an immediate challenge to the top group in points.

The Pennsylvania 500 comes up next on August 2 at Pocono Raceway. Man it’s going to be hot by then, and this 200-lapper will bring out the tempers of the top guns, you can definitely bet on that. Watch Kurt Busch in this one, I’d take him in a player on player money line bet over Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman and anyone else down the line. He’d also stand a good chance against Jeff Gordon, just based off how the two men have run in the last few weeks. Busch might be up in the points, but his finishes have been somewhat lacking. One win, and 10 top 10 finishes almost make you wonder how he’s so high, only trailing those top 3. Depending on the spread, he might be someone you’ll want to bet against, depending on who you’re putting him up against. As far as the NASCAR Odds go, I’d stay far away from him, or anyone else for that matter, on a straight bet “to win” for this one. It’s too risky for the return.